Wednesday, July 05, 2006

Mexican elections : July 4 Delegation report

Just a few points- since we still don't have a lot of data.

1. An overwhelming majority of Mexicans voted against the failed policies of the Fox Administration. 6 years ago, Fox won with 42% of the vote; right now Calderon is holding at 36% and would have no mandate if he's the victor.

2. While historically, the PRI was the only national party, the PAN is ahead of the PRD in becoming one. Although the PRD was very proud that it had managed to appoint party pollwatchers in 96%of the 130,000 polling places (casillas).

3. While there is a general north/south divide in the results, it appears the PAN came in first in two southern states, and the PRD came in first in 3 northern states.

4. The PRI failed to come in first in a single state, even though it still controls the governorships in 17.

5. The IFE did a good job in setting up the actual balloting structure (Although, I'm going by US Standards and maybe the Palm Beach County bar is set too low.) Only 8 casillas failed to open at all. Their major screwup was sending only 480,000 ballots to the special casillas for people traveling out of their home county on Sunday. The IFE underestimated the transitory nature of this nation of 100 million and the specials ran out of ballots very early and couldn't get more. It appears that perhaps 200,000 to 400,000 voters were disenfranchised.

6. The Congress faces a massive change. The Chamber of Deputies sees the PRI drop from 203 to a likely 110; the PAN goes from 148 to over 210; and the PRD goes from 97 to over 160. In the Senate (where half the seats were up) the PRI looks to drop from 58 to 35; the PAN goes from 47 to maybe 54; and the PRD goes from 15 to 37. Even with the expectation that the PRI "technos" vote with the PAN, it is a very different Congress, as some of the PRI are likely to break from their near powerless cacus and vote with PRD proposals.

We'll have more analysis later.

Skip Roberts
Washington, DC

No comments: