The Latino Vote in 2014 deepened a contradictory trend first noticed in the 2006 mid-term elections in which Latino voter registration declined compared to the 2004 presidential election. A new normal of mid-term cycle voter registration contractions or "busts" bookended by presidential cycle "booms" was verified by the 6% Latino voter registration contraction in 2014 compared to 2012. The Latino vote contraction in 2014 will limit, as it did in 2010-2012, prospects for Latino voter registration and turnout growth in 2016.
Latino voter registration growth in 2014 appears robust when compared to 2010 but 100% of that growth owes to the Latino voter surge of 2012.
Latino votes cast in 2014 at 53% also took a significant dive compared to the 1998-2010 turnout average of 60%. But most of this national turnout decline was due to dismal Latino voter performance in California's non-competitive elections.
Several states bucked the downward Latino voter turnout trend most notably Colorado, Pennsylvania and New Jersey where significant resource investments in the Latino vote coupled with hot elections for Governor and Senator significantly drove up Latino participation.
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