The leader of a national public policy and research group predicts Texas will see record Latino voting in next year's presidential election, thanks in part to a "significant Trump effect."
"Villains often times are the best mobilizers we have," Gonzalez said.
"Donald Trump may be our best friend. Donald Trump is enraging Latino voters," Antonio Gonzalez, president of the William C. Velásquez Institute, said at a briefing and panel discussion Thursday at the University of Texas at San Antonio Downtown Campus.
Gonzalez said he would "bet the farm" that Texas will have a record number of more than 3 million Latino voters registered by November, after a "hot Super Tuesday" primary next March 1 will "bring out Latinos of all stripes from both parties" and "catapult voter registration."
He also predicted record participation of more than 2 million Latino voters casting ballots in November. An average of 73 percent of registered Latino voters have gone to the polls in "open" presidential elections without an incumbent since 1992, he said.
Gonzalez compared Trump's anti-immigration comments to other political leaders whose actions galvanized Latino voter participation, such as California Gov. Pete Wilson, who opposed access to public education and other services for undocumented immigrants in the early 1990s. Arizona has had the fastest-growing Latino voter base after that state was beset with controversy recently over immigration policies and enforcement sought by leaders there, he said.
"Villains often times are the best mobilizers we have," Gonzalez said.
Laura Barberena, president of VIVA Politics, said Trump, the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, has gotten "ordinary people to just talk about politics - in the taxi cab, at work, around the kitchen table."
"I love the Trump. The Trump has done what I have dedicated my whole life to do and not been successful," she said. "And now that he's done it, what are we going to do about that?"
Barberena outlined cuatro trampas (four pitfalls) that she said pundits and the media often stumble over when analyzing Latino voting. President George W. Bush won 35 percent to 40 percent of the Latino vote in 2004, not the 44 percent based on exit polls and touted as a benchmark, she said.
She also criticized characterizations that the "Latino vote" is "up for grabs"; anecdotal focus on a group or person, usually an outlier, as typical of all Latinos; and reports that few young Latinos vote, discounting the DREAMer movement waged by young immigrant activists.
Rogelio Saenz, dean of UTSA's College of Public Policy, said the state's Latino population is projected to grow from 9.5 million in 2010 to more than 22 million in 2050, while the Anglo population will remain steady at just under 11.4 million.
"We have a lot of potential voters that are coming down the pike that need to be engaged," Saenz said.
But Gonzalez said the challenges in creating that engagement are huge, because of systemic problems with the democratic process. Compared with other democracies, the United States has lower participation, partly because the country has voluntary voter registration; private financing of campaigns; indirect election of presidents; and a two-party duopoly, with neither party emerging as a clear advocate for the poor, he said.
"The American system is not meant for high participation," Gonzalez said.
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